Perbandingan MAPE Metode Arima dan FTS Chen pada Peramalan Harga Minyak Mentah Widuri di Indonesia

Authors

  • Zakaria Bani Ikhtiyar Institut Teknologi Statistika dan Bisnis Muhammadiyah Semarang
  • Wellie Sulistijanti Institut Teknologi Statistika dan Bisnis Muhammadiyah Semarang
  • Silvia Novita Sari Institut Teknologi Statistika dan Bisnis Muhammadiyah Semarang
  • Adiyah Mahiruna Institut Teknologi Statistika dan Bisnis Muhammadiyah Semarang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21580/square.2024.6.2.23579

Abstract

The need for crude oil greatly affects economic activities on a micro and macro scale. Indonesia is one of the countries that produces crude oil, although the amount produced is not as large as countries in the Middle East. The global price of crude oil has a direct impact on Indonesia's rising fuel prices. To find out the world price of crude oil in the future, forecasting can be done. Widuri type crude oil is one of the crude oils that is a priority in Indonesia. This study compares the accuracy of forecasting the price of Widuri type crude oil with the MAPE accuracy calculation method and the forecasting method compared is the ARIMA method with the FTS Chen method.

Keywords: forecasting, Oil, ARIMA, Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Chen.

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Author Biography

Wellie Sulistijanti, Institut Teknologi Statistika dan Bisnis Muhammadiyah Semarang

Institut Teknologi Statistika dan Bisnis Muhammadiyah Semarang

References

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Published

2024-10-30

Issue

Vol. 6 No. 2 (2024)

Section

Articles

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